[Probcogsci] Can we start a little early? Re: Next Week : Optimal Predictions in Everyday Cognition

[Vicente Malave]

Hi folks, turns out in my enthusiasm for Bayesian cognitive science I
accidentally double-booked myself, and I have to be somewhere at 4.
Are we okay with starting a little earlier? Either at 3 and have the
full discussion, or at 3:30 and I'll just talk really fast. Let me
know what works for you.

On Thu, Jul 2, 2009 at 10:25 PM, Vicente Malave<vicente.malave at gmail.com> wrote:
> Next week we will be meeting (still 4pm, natcomp conference room), and
> I will lead discussion.
>
> Two weeks ago, Ben asked "Where do the priors come from"? -The best
> way to answer this is to look at a situation where we can determine
> the prior, and ask if people's decisions are consistent with that. The
> main paper we will be focusing on is "Optimal Predictions in Everyday
> Cognition" by Griffiths and Tenenbaum.
> http://cocosci.berkeley.edu/tom/papers/predictions.pdf
> The task is to predict how long an event will last, given 1 data point
> (the current duration). In this case for most of the events (i.e.
> baking a cake) they were able to get a good prior. Its a very short
> and simple paper, and we will work through all the math in the
> appendix.
>
> This paper was inspired by
> Implications of the Copernican principle for our future prospects, by
> JR Gott III, published in Nature as a "Hypothesis"
> http://www.nature.com/nature/journal/v363/n6427/abs/363315a0.html
> which estimates a number of interesting things using a the same
> argument, including how long the journal Nature will exist, the
> possibilities of colonizing the galaxy, and if SETI will find
> extraterrestrial life. Its pretty interesting, but quite a tangent,
> maybe we won't discuss this.
>
> Finally, when gathering these I found a recent paper by Mike Mozer,
> Hal Pashler, and Hadjar Homaei (Cogsci Journal) directly contradicting
> the optimal predictions paper. Their argument seems to be that
> Griffiths and Tenenbaum have fit the aggregate prediction across
> subjects. If you find yourself screaming out against the target
> article, perhaps your criticisms will be contained here.
> http://www.cs.colorado.edu/~mozer/papers/reprints/MozerPashlerHomaei2008.pdf
>
> So, for next week, read the "Optimal Predictions" paper, and come
> prepared to discuss. Other readings are supplementary.
> --
> Vicente Malave
>



-- 
Vicente Malave